For more information on the CBOE Volatility Index^® ("VIX"), volatility and variance futures including brokers, ISVs, symbols and product specifications, visit www.cboe.com/cfe.

To contact the CFE, please click here.

Futures in Volatility includes several sections: Market Summary and Analysis, Trading Strategy Ideas, Volatility in Focus and Events. Market Summary and Analysis includes commentary related to VIX, VIX futures and other volatility products, as well as charts and data related to these markets. Trading Strategy Ideas features strategies focused on trading volatility products. Volatility In Focus includes feature articles and education focused on volatility related concepts. And, Events features upcoming CFE and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE^®) conferences, seminars and webinar presentations.

Back to top

Contact Information

Please direct questions concerning this circular to Jay Caauwe at (312) 786-8855 or caauwe@cboe.com.

VIX Futures Last Trade Dates

Market Summary and Analysis is provided by Larry McMillan. Mr. McMillan is the President of McMillan Analysis Corporation. Click Here for more information about Mr. McMillan.

A Round Trip in Volatility

Shortly after the January VIX futures expired, VIX^® itself registered a spike peak – sharply trading up to 37.57 on January 22nd and then falling rapidly to close at 31 that day. Moreover, the decline continued on into the next day. This spike peak is generally regarded as a bullish, intermediate-term signal for the broad stock market (i.e., for the S&P 500^® Index("SPX")). The broad market did rally after that, although the rally proved to be relatively short-lived. More about that in a minute.

Since then VIX has remained in a range, trading between 24 and 29. This is relatively calm action for VIX, and as a result, the actual volatility of VIX has been declining for some time. Not only has the 50-day historical volatility of VIX itself dropped from 140% in January to about 100% today, but the implied volatility of VIX options has decreased substantially as well: in late January, VIX options had implied volatilities in the high 80's; now the near-term options have implied volatility in the high 60’s. Normally, a declining and less volatile VIX is bullish for the broad stock market, although that hasn’t been the case of late.

As these movements occurred in VIX, the VIX futures were changing their posture somewhat as well. As was documented in the last newsletter, VIX futures, because they were trading at a substantial premium to VIX, gave a timely and accurate warning in late December of the trouble that the stock market was about to face in January. Then, adding to their stellar record, the near-term futures dropped to a substantial discount, and that was bullish. That discount persisted for several days – from January 17th through January 30th – and the SPX rose from its lows near 1300 to nearly 1395 over that time period.

Since then, as the volatility of VIX has dampened, so have any extreme readings noted by discounts or premiums, in the VIX futures. On only a few occasions so far this month has there been a discount (Feb 5th) or premium (Feb 1st and 3 days recently) larger than 85 cents in the near-term VIX futures contract, as compared to VIX itself.

Figure 1 shows the VIX index (green line) and the VIX futures contracts (colored lines). Looking at the right-hand side of the chart, where the current data is, one can see the green line well above the colored lines in mid-to-late January. That was the period of futures discounts that we referred to above, reflecting a bullish market bias.

Now all of the lines are tightly bunched together between 24 and 26, as the volatility of VIX has declined. When the futures are bunched together like this, we say that the futures pricing curve is flat. Another way to interpret the pattern is to say that this relative flatness of the volatility curve at these fairly high levels (i.e., near 25 or so) indicates that traders expect volatility to remain high through this year.

Table 1 below shows the current state of the VIX futures pricing curve. Note that the futures all the way out to November are within 1.00 point of each other, and all are quite close to VIX in value as well.

Source: MAC

Figure 1 Source: McMillan Analysis Corp.

Note that this pattern - green line above all the others has taken place four times now, dating back to August 2007. Each time it was the signal that a substantial market rally was taking place, but not necessarily the end of the bear market.

The VIX Futures Pricing Curve

Besides the relationship between the VIX and the futures contracts, it can also sometimes be constructive to observe the relationship between the various futures contracts themselves. For example, in Table 1, you can see that each successive contract was trading at a higher price than the next-longer-term contract. This is typical in periods when the VIX has risen to extremely high levels. Conversely, the pattern will often invert when the VIX is trading at extremely low levels, as it did last December, when the VIX dropped to 18, but the futures contracts all remained above 20.

Normally, the futures pricing curve flattens out when the VIX returns to be in line with the two front month futures. Therefore, calendar spreads when the curve is steep are viable strategies - as we have detailed in previous reports. Also, since such calendar spreads require only a small margin deposit, it is a strategy with plenty of leverage, and therefore a high rate of return when it is profitable. Also, some traders prefer the calendar spread to an outright speculative position in the SPX options, as a way to trade the extremes. In other words, on Monday, March 17th, Table 1 shows that the market is expected to rally. One could buy (expensive) SPX calls to profit from that information. However, one might also establish a spread, selling the April futures contract, say, and buying a slightly longer-term contract in May or June. If the VIX declines, as expected, the spread will narrow and the trader will profit.

But sometimes, the pricing curve doesn't flatten out as expected. That is what has happened this week. The broad stock market has rallied strongly on two days this week, bringing the VIX back down to 26.62 from its Monday highs. Consider this fact; On Monday, these prices existed:

• April VX future: 30.50
• June VX future: 29.00

S&P 500 3-month Variance Futures

Variance is a measure of how spread out a distribution is. It is computed as the average squared deviation of each number from its mean. Squaring the distance from the mean has the effect of giving greater weight to values that are further from the mean. Although the variance is intended to be an overall measure of spread, it can be greatly affected by activity at the tails of a distribution. CBOE S&P 500 3-month Variance Futures are based on the realized, or historical, variance of the S&P 500 Index. CBOE S&P 500 3-month Variance Futures are quoted in terms of variance points, which are defined as realized variance multiplied by 10,000. One variance point is worth $50. For example, a variance calculation of 0.06335 would have a corresponding price quotation in variance points of 633.50, and a contract size of $31,675.00 (633.50 x $50).

Implied and Realized Components of the S&P 500 3-month Variance Futures

Because S&P 500 3-month Variance Futures are based on the realized variance of the S&P 500 Index, the price of the front-month contract can be stated as two distinct components: the realized variance and the implied forward variance. CFE will disseminate both of these values at the end of each trading day under the following tickers:

Realized Variance - RUG: An indication of the realized variance of the S&P 500 Index corresponding to the front-month Variance futures contract.

Implied Forward Variance - IUG: An indication of the future variance of the S&P 500 Index that is implied by the daily settlement price of the front-month Variance futures contract.

Variance futures contracts are forward starting three-month variance swaps. Once a futures contract reaches front-month status, it enters the three-month window during which realized variance is calculated. To calculate the variance, sum the daily returns of the S&P 500 from the swap-start date through futures expiration, then annualize the number. Because the daily returns are additive, on any day, it is possible to know both the realized variance since the first day of the swap period (RUG) and the implied variance of the S&P 500 derived from the price of the variance futures contract (IUG). For example, on March 4, 2005, the front-month Variance futures contract (VT/H5) had 10 business days remaining until settlement. Because the entire three-month swap period encompassed 62 business days, 83% of the contract's settlement value has been realized (RUG). The RUG reported by CFE that evening was 94.97 and the VT/H5 daily settlement price was 99.50. Using the following formula, we can calculate the implied forward variance (IUG) for the remaining ten days.

Where VT is the daily settlement price for the front-month Variance futures contract. RUG is realized variance so far in the life of the contract. T is the total number of business days in the Variance futures. t is the number of business days left until options expiration.

Taking the square root of the IUG, one finds the futures price is implying an annualized S&P 500 return standard deviation or volatility of 11.09% over the next ten days. ). For more information about the S&P 500 Three-Month Variance calculation, please visit the education page for the CFE.

Unique Features of Futures and Options on the CBOE’s Volatility Indexes

Futures and options on the CBOE’s volatility indexes have several features that distinguish them from most equity and index options. Here are links to unique features of VIX options:

• Pricing Based on Forward VIX Value
• Pricing Can Be Different for a Number of Reasons
• Wednesday Settlement
• Special Opening Quotation Price
• Negative Correlation to Stock Indexes
• High Volatility of Volatility

Links to More Information about Volatility Indexes

• VIX Options FAQ
• VIX Options Quick Reference Guide
• VIX Options Specifications
• VIX Options Video on CBOE-TV Channel 3
• VIX Options Daily Market Data
• VIX Options Delayed Option Chain
• VIX Historical Price Data
• VIX Futures Price and Volume Data
• VIX Price Charts
• VIX White Paper
• VIX Futures Primer
• VIX Bibliography

Back to top

About CBOE Futures Exchange

CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE^®) is an all-electronic open access exchange, which utilizes the CBOE’s^® state-of-the-art trading system, CBOEdirect^®. CFE is the leader in providing innovative volatility risk management futures products, including VIX^® and variance futures, which enable market participants to manage volatility risk, as well as trade volatility directly. Access to CFE is available through numerous brokers, ISVs or directly via the CBOEdirect API or CBOE’s HyTS^® terminals. CFE trades are cleared by the AAA-rated Options Clearing Corporation (OCC). To contact the CFE, please click here.

About Larry McMillan and McMillan Analysis Corporation

Professional trader Lawrence G. McMillan is perhaps best known as the author of Options As a Strategic Investment, the best-selling work on stock and index options strategies, which has sold over 200,000 copies. An active trader of his own account, he also manages option-oriented accounts for certain individuals and in addition, he is the Portfolio Manager of The Hardel Volatility Arbitrage Fund (a hedge fund). In a research capacity, he edits and contributes to his firm’s publications: Daily Volume Alerts, The Option Strategist and The Daily Strategist—derivative products newsletters covering equity, index, and futures options. Finally, he speaks on option strategies at many seminars and colloquia in the United States, Canada, and Europe. He is quoted in publications such as The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, Data Broadcasting’s Exchange magazine, Futures Magazine, theStreet.com, and Active Trader Magazine. In these capacities, he is the President of McMillan Analysis Corporation, which he founded in 1991. Prior to founding his own firm, Mr. McMillan was a proprietary trader at two major brokerage firms—primarily Thomson McKinnon Securities, where he ran the Equity Arbitrage Department for nine years.

Back to top

*     This is a paid advertisement. The inclusion of these advertisements should not be construed as an endorsement of any product, service, or Web site or as an indication of the value of any claims, recommendations or other information contained therein.

Copyright © 2008 CBOE Futures Exchange, LLC. All rights reserved.

CFE®, CBOE®, Chicago Board Options Exchange®, CBOE Volatility Index®, VIX® are registered trademarks of Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated.

The information in this newsletter is provided solely for general education and information purposes and therefore should not be considered complete, precise, or current. Many of the matters discussed are subject to detailed rules, regulations, and statutory provisions that should be referred to for additional detail and are subject to changes that may not be reflected in this newsletter. The strategy discussions contained in this newsletter are designed to assist individuals in learning how volatility and variance futures as well as other volatility-based derivatives work and understanding various volatility derivatives strategies. The strategies discussed are for educational and illustrative purposes only and should be not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or futures contract or to provide investment advice. Additionally, commissions and other transaction costs have not been included in the example strategies and will impact the outcome of security and futures transactions and must be considered prior to entering into any transactions. Investors considering volatility-based derivatives should consult a professional tax advisor as to how taxes affect the outcome of contemplated transactions in volatility-based derivatives. The charts and/or graphs contained herein are intended for reference purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The views of third party contributors to this newsletter are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of CFE or its affiliates. Third party contributors are not affiliated with CFE. This newsletter should not be construed as an endorsement or an indication by CFE of the value of any third party product or service described in this newsletter.

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options (ODD). Copies of the ODD are available from your broker, by calling 1-888-OPTIONS, or from The Options Clearing Corporation, One North Wacker Drive, Suite 500, Chicago, Illinois 60606.

The methodologies of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and the CBOE DJIA Volatility Index (VXD) are owned by CBOE and may be covered by one or more patents or pending patent applications.